Latief U Zaman Deva*
(This is a three-part series on J&K Assembly elections and Part-I and Part-II can be read.)
In the first phase of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections, scheduled for September 18, 2024, (Wednesday), the two regions of Maraz, comprising Anantnag, Pulwama, Kulgam, and Shopian districts, and Chenab Valley, which includes Doda, Kishtwar and Ramban districts, will go to polls.
The political landscape in these areas is complex, with numerous local power dynamics, historical influences, and party affiliations shaping the contest.
Part II of this series gave a detailed analysis of some of the constituencies going to polls in Phase 1 of the Jammu and Kashmir elections. Here is a detailed constituency-wise analysis of the electoral battles in the rest of them.
Inderwal
The main contesting candidates in Inderwal are Ashaq Hussain of Apni Party, Ghulam Mohammed Saroori, Independent, M Zafferullah, INC, Nasir Hussain Sheikh, PDP, Pyare Lal Sharma, Independent and Tariq Hussain Keen, BJP.
No analysis of constituencies shall be foolproof in Chenab Valley unless one has a fair view of the religion-based demography in the region. Inderwal is supposed to have over 75% Muslim majority.
In the elections of 1977, 1983, and 1996, the National Conference (NC) won from the constituency while the Indian National Congress (INC) romped home during the 1987, 2003, 2008, and 2014 Assembly elections.
The INC-NC alliance candidate is Mohammad Zafferullah facing Ghulam Mohammed Saroori, a three-time winner in the elections from the constituency and former Congressman of repute and later on Vice President of Ghulam Nabi Azad-led DPAP.
Also in the race are Pyare Lal Sharma, an NC rebel, and Tariq Hussain Keen (BJP), an acknowledged Muslim face of the BJP in Chenab Valley. Nasir Hussain Sheikh represents the PDP and Ashiq Hussain, Apni Party.
Due to polarisation, the anti-incumbency factor working against the BJP, and the tall stature of Saroori, he is emerging as a front-runner. Keen is likely to suffer owing to Sharma, who commands the reputation and support of sections of people irrespective of religious considerations.
Inderwal is headed for a triangular contest amongst Saroori, Keen and Sharma.
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Kishtwar
NC has fielded Sajjad Ahmad Kichloo, BJP Shagun Parihar, PDP Firdous Ahmad Tak, and BSP, Sumit Kumar.
Kichloo has represented the constituency twice and his father Bashir Ahmad Kichloo thrice.
Shagun is highly qualified, whose father and uncle have fallen to the bullets of the militants. Tak is a former MLC of the PDP and earlier a journalist. There are 7388 SC voters in the constituency and this is the reason the BSP is fielding Sumit Kumar.
There’s a tough electoral battle for Kichloo in case the calculations carry a semblance of truth about the size of the Muslim population in the constituency having plummeted from 50% to 45 percent due to gerrymandering by the Delimitation Commission.
Here is a dichotomy. Padder-Nagseni constituency was carved out for a 0.51 lakh population. On the same parameters, Marwah-Wardwan and its surrounding villages deserved to be a separate constituency, a place remaining cut off from the rest of the country for over six months. But that has not happened and this belt continues to be a part of Kishtwar constituency.
Chattru and other villages included in the Inderwal constituency could have been merged into the Kishtwar assembly constituency by abolishing Inderwal as a constituency. Another similar example is the creation of a new constituency under the nomenclature of Shri Mata Vaishno Devi for a population of 0.73 lakh population in district Reasi.
Despite this reckless gerrymandering, after over a decade, the voters from minority communities seem to be veering around for preferences outside their communities which may enable Kichloo to wrest back the constituency for NC, provided the voter share of Tak is not higher than the minority voters opting for NC.
Padder-Nagseni
The NC has fielded Pooja Thakur. Sandesh Kumar of PDP and Sunil Kumar Sharma of the BJP are also in the race. NC candidate, Chairperson of the DDC Kishtwar, is super active in her campaign challenging the BJP candidate head-on. The latter was a Minister in the PDP-BJP Coalition government. The Constituency with almost 80% non-Muslim population is in the throes of one-sided approbation.
Bhaderwah
Daleep Singh Parihar of the BJP, Mehboob Iqbal (NC), and Nadeem Sharief (INC) are the main candidates for the Bhaderwah assembly segment. While INC and NC have forged an electoral alliance, the differences in the sharing of five seats remained unresolved.
Both Parties decided to go for ‘friendly contests’ on these five seats which includes Bhaderwah, where the population by religion is around 47:53 between Muslims and non-Muslims.
Before the Delimitation of 2022, the ratio was almost 60:40.
BJP candidate registered his maiden victory in the 2014 elections by fetching 25953 votes against 24457 by INC and 16673 by PDP. Nadeem is the son of Sharief Niaz, who won elections from the constituency in 2003 and 2008.
Mehboob Iqbal IAS (Retd), a well-known civil servant of the erstwhile State of J&K was in PDP after superannuation from services before he joined the NC.
INC was in a dominant position in the Bhalesa sub-region and comfortably placed in Bhaderwah areas but with the exit of Ghulam Nabi Azad, the party base has shrunk considerably.
The fledgling NC, once an invincible force in Chenab Valley in general and Bhaderwah in particular, is perceived to be the beneficiary of the decline of INC.
The contest under these circumstances is between BJP and NC, relegating INC to a distant third place.
Depending upon the extent to which religious identities become secondary while choosing a candidate on merits only, the outcome in the face of the existing scenario in a tightly held competition can be well imagined.
NC is back on an unstoppable revival path and can be checked by divisiveness alone, the favourite option frequently invoked in elections by the BJP.
Doda
Khalid Najeeb Suhrawardy (NC), Abdul Majeed Wani (DPAP), Gajay Singh Rana (BJP), Mansoor Ahmad Bhat (PDP), and Sheikh Reyaz Ahmad (INC) are the main candidates in the fray.
Suhrawardy has represented the constituency after winning in bye-elections necessitated by the passing away of his father, Attaullah Suhrawardy, the legendary leader of Chenab Valley, who had won from the constituency in 1987 and 1996.
Wani was elected from Doda in 2002 and 2008 assembly elections.
Both lost in the 2014 assembly elections against BJP due to the division of anti-BJP votes.
The population ratio between Muslims and non-Muslims in the constituency is between 75:25 and 80:30 with 16741 and 5992 ST (Ist) and SC populations respectively.
Both Suhrawardy and Wani are frontrunners but to win this constituency, the winner must poll more than 25% of the polled votes.
Suhrawardy is the scion of a highly respectable dynasty and inheritor of the senior Suhrawardy’s legacy. Wani a self-made politician with a silver spoon in his mouth has developed a rapport with the general masses.
Doda West
Abdul Gani (DPAP), Pradeep Kumar (INC-NC Alliance), Shakti Parihar (BJP), Tanver Hussain (PDP), Yasir Shafi (AIP), and Tilak Raj Shan, independent are the main contenders for Doda West constituency.
The population by religion is 65 to 70% non-Muslims and 30 to 35% Muslims. Out of a total population of 107065, 17706 are SC and 6619 ST.
In this constituency, the NC-Congress alliance is intact. In case Dr Chaman Lal, former NC MLA from Ramban, overcomes other dilemmas, as a genuine SC face of NC, he can succeed in the transfer of bulk SC votes to the alliance candidate, making it difficult for BJP to have a cake-walk in this constituency.
This is possible provided a couple of Muslim candidates in the fray don’t succeed in apportioning the Muslim vote who seem to have been fielded by respective parties senselessly.
The real contest is between the BJP and the NC-Congress alliance candidate but owing to the susceptibility of Muslim votes to various candidates of other secular parties, the BJP has an edge over other candidates and can take the seat.
Ramban
The real contestants are Arjun Singh Raju (NC), Thakur Rakesh Singh (BJP), and Suraj Singh Parihar, a BJP rebel.
The population by religion in Ramban is 60:40 between non-Muslims and Muslims with 9.64% SC and 14.86% ST populations.
A competent poll management unit on either side can ensure the success of the concerned candidate. The BJP rebel candidate is the most popular and by now the highest crowd-puller across communities. NC candidate has a rich family legacy of secularism and integrity in public life. These twin facets have catapulted him into popular ranking along with the other two senior and experienced candidates.
BJP’s official candidate has the advantage of an organised cadre working for him round the clock, in addition to other unmatchable resources. Anyone out of the three with a slight edge at present in favour of the NC candidate can be the winner.
Banihal
The Banihal assembly segment is in the vortex of a triangular contest involving two Banihalis and a third Gool resident, earlier a part of Gool-Gulabgarh constituency in District Udhampur.
After the creation of the Reasi and Ramban districts, Gool being geographically in Chenab Valley, the entire sub-division came to be excluded from Udhampur and Reasi districts for inclusion in the Ramban district.
Delimitation Commission in furtherance to the criteria for delimitation to be intra-district included it in Banihal segment instead of Ramban where the inhabitants have to pass through to reach Banihal. This illogical and indefensible act was done to save the Ramban constituency from attaining Muslim majority character.
Vikar Rasool Wani (INC), Sajjad Shaheen (NC), and Imtiaz Ahmad Shan (PDP) are the three main contenders.
Bashir Ahmad Rounyal, IAS (Retd) and former DC, who contested as PDP candidate during the 2014 assembly elections and was runner-up to winner INC candidate, has come out in support of Shan.
Shan is extremely popular in Gool and goodwill brand of honesty, God-fearing, compassionate, non-discriminatory, and humility, his known philanthropic characteristics have endeared him to all sections of people across the constituency.
The acrimony between the two candidates from Banihal has disillusioned people in the length and breadth of the constituency resulting in a search for an alternative. The circumstances and popular urge for change stopped at Shan, as a Messiah for poverty-stricken people. His image coupled with the deployment of cadres by Rounyal has energised his campaign.
The results are that while it is INC and NC factor in Banihal Block, Kharri Block witnesses neck-to-neck support base for NC and PDP. In Ramsoo Block it is NC, PDP, INC, and BJP on equal footing. In Ukraal Block, there is resounding support for the PDP followed by NC, and not less than 70% support for the PDP in Gool, having almost 40000 votes.
Shangus-Anantnag East
The constituency’s eastern border traces a serpentine path alongside Anantnag West, Anantnag, and Srigufwara-Bijbehara Assembly constituencies. From a cartographer’s perspective, including areas of Kokernag in this constituency (rather than merging them with Dooru) and retaining Achabal and its surrounding villages (instead of transferring them to Anantnag West) would have better-addressed issues of watershed management, accessibility, connectivity, and administrative unity.
The main candidates in the race are Abdul Rehman Veeri of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Advocate Reyaz Ahmad Khan of the National Conference (NC), and Choudhary Abdul Hamid of the Apni Party (AP).
Reyaz Ahmad Khan has long represented the NC in this area, despite the party’s inability to win the seat in the 2003, 2008, and 2014 elections. Recent territorial additions from Pahalgam, Srigufwara-Bijbehara, and Anantnag have increased the number of NC-supporting areas, potentially shifting the political dynamics in the party’s favour. Khan’s campaign feels routine to him, but his accessibility and moral values have boosted his popularity, especially among new constituents.
Ab Rehman Veeri, a four-time elected representative from his home constituency, was fielded here on short notice. His strengths include skillful management of political events, building bridges between various party factions and supporters, a calm and calculated approach, and the ability to win over opponents. However, the limited time for campaigning may hinder his effectiveness.
Choudhary Abdul Hamid’s impact on the race depends on his ability to erode NC’s support among Scheduled Tribe (ST) voters. With only two days left before the polls, this seems unlikely to significantly affect the outcome.
The main contest is expected to be between the NC and PDP candidates, with the NC, enjoying an advantage due to recent territorial changes and the popularity of their candidate. However, the PDP candidate’s political experience and skills could still make for a competitive race.
Pahalgam
The Pahalgam constituency is witnessing a three-way contest between Altaf Ahmed Kallu of the National Conference (NC), Dr Shabir Sidiqi of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and Rafi Ahmad Mir of the Apni Party (AP). Altaf and Sidiqi hail from Ashmuqam, while Mir is from Saller.
Each candidate brings a unique political background to the race: Altaf was elected to the Legislative Assembly in 2014, Dr Sidiqi joined the PDP after retiring from government service, and Mir has served as both an NC legislator (1987-1990) and a PDP legislator (2008-2014). Interestingly, Mir’s father was a member of the Constituent Assembly.
The constituency can be divided into three distinct segments, each with its political dynamics. The first segment covers areas along both sides of the Lidder River, from Langanbal bridge upstream towards Aru Valley on the left and up to Frislan on the right. In this area, all three candidates enjoy roughly equal support.
The second segment stretches from Langanbal to Sakdash on the Pahalgam-Bijbehara road, where the contest is primarily between AP and PDP. The PDP might have had a stronger position here had they chosen Irfan Kuller, a well-known political activist, over Dr Sidiqi.
The third segment runs from Langanbal to Silgam on the Pahalgam-Ashmuqam-Mattan Road, with NC and PDP emerging as the frontrunners.
Based on these regional assessments, the overall popularity ranking of the candidates is likely to be NC in the lead, followed by PDP, and then AP. However, a crucial factor that could influence the outcome is the Scheduled Tribe (ST) population, which makes up 22.15% of the constituency and has the potential to swing the results.
An interesting development in this election is the role of Morsee, who was previously elected as an NC-backed candidate for the chairmanship of DDC Anantnag. Morsee has since switched allegiances, first to the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) and more recently to the AP, and is now campaigning for Mir.
However, his influence, even in his home area of Lidder in Pahalgam, appears to be diminishing, which could benefit the NC. If Morsee manages to transfer ST votes to AP, it might indirectly help the PDP by splitting the NC’s traditional vote base. Yet, the extent of his sway over the Gujjar and Bakerwal (G&B) community remains uncertain.
While the NC seems to have an edge in this race, the outcome will likely hinge on how the ST vote is distributed among the three parties. The complex interplay of regional preferences, candidate backgrounds, and shifting alliances makes this a closely watched and unpredictable contest.
* The writer is a retired IAS officer and former Chairperson of the Jammu and Kashmir Public Service Commission.
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Complete list of candidates for Phase I J&K Assembly Elections 2024
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The post Political Kaleidoscope: Key Contests in 1st Phase of J&K Assembly Polls – Part III first appeared on Kashmir Times (Since 1954): Multi-media web news platform..
The post Political Kaleidoscope: Key Contests in 1st Phase of J&K Assembly Polls – Part III appeared first on Kashmir Times (Since 1954): Multi-media web news platform..